From the Libertarian Party of California: www.ca.lp.org
Where Will the New Jobs Go?
Joe Cobb
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
last week that only 51,000 new jobs were created
in the United States during September. Labor
statistics are always being revised, but this
preliminary report is not good news for
California. Without a lot more jobs in the future,
tax revenue won't grow.
The budget and debt crisis facing the Golden
State is getting worse, even after several years
of good economic recovery. In the next few months,
billions of dollars more in public debt will be
disclosed, resulting from retired
government-employee health and pension
liabilities.
If California doesn't turn its economy into one
of the strongest growth sectors in the country, it
is doomed. The state needs a lot more tax revenue
to sustain all its legal commitments for future
spending.
Paradoxically, California's government seems to
be trying hard to reduce economic growth. With
gasoline and electricity prices already well above
those in neighboring states, and the new
regulations on carbon dioxide emissions, which no
neighboring states have, California appears headed
for an economic decline.
California's economy is exposed to competition
from the worldwide economic system, which can
produce goods and services where they are least
costly and sell them everywhere with cheap
transportation. Even before it was global, free
trade inside the United States promoted the
movement of jobs from the industrialized East
Coast to the South and West.
For most of the 20th century, California's
economic growth was driven by its favorable
climate. John Steinbeck documented the migration
to California in the 1930s in The Grapes of Wrath,
and the Pacific war theater brought millions of
Americans to the West Coast for the first time;
after World War II, California became their
home.
California's economic growth happened because
immigrants arrived and found jobs and started new
businesses. California's real estate boom was
driven by its population increase over the years,
but that may be coming to an end. The prospect of
continued immigration is bleak (except, of course,
for impoverished refugees from Mexico) if the
state government's tax and regulatory policies
don't change.
Consider what our neighboring states are doing
to take jobs and economic growth away from
California. Since becoming New Mexico's governor
in 2002, Bill Richardson has reduced income tax
rates 35 percent. When he signed the tax cut bill,
Richardson declared New Mexico "open for
business." He said he was tired of losing
business to lower-tax states like Arizona.
Meanwhile, Arizona has just cut its income tax
rates 10 percent across the board, and Phoenix is
one of the fastest growing cities in
America. Candidates for governor in Arizona are
debating each other over who will cut taxes the
most when elected.
Last month, Utah also cut income tax rates and
became the first state in the country to offer
taxpayers the choice between filing taxes under a
new flat tax or remaining in the current graduated
system. Moreover, Utah lawmakers say it is only
the first step in what promises to be
comprehensive tax reform.
Nevada has no income taxes, and Las Vegas is
the fastest growing city in America.
Compare the prospects for California with the
rapid economic growth in Nevada, Arizona, Utah,
and New Mexico—all of which have government
budgets in surplus. California's 10.3 percent top
income tax rate would have been pushed even
higher, to 12 percent, if Proposition 82 had
passed in June. Arizona's top income tax rate is
4.8 percent (next year 4.3 percent), and New
Mexico and Utah's top rates are each 5.3
percent.
California has the highest workers'
compensation costs and the highest health care
premiums of any of the western states. An employer
with such nearby options to expand in lower-tax,
lower-cost states would be foolish to expand in
California. The increases in employment in
California in recent years have been primarily in
government jobs, which are counted as positive
statistics for economic growth; but since those
jobs depend on tax revenues, they are really
parasitical.
California has always been recognized as a
trend-setting state, with many economic and
cultural innovations beginning here and sweeping
the world. Unfortunately California may now be at
the forefront of a new trend: downward.
Let's hope the voters understand what is at
stake and elect new leaders who can change
California's future before it is too late.
© Copyright 2008 by Libertarian Party of California
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