Libertarian Perspective
California’s Real Estate Bubble
Fred E. Foldvary
Aug 2, 2005

Don’t blame or praise the market for California’s real estate bubble—the dramatic rise in real estate prices has been caused by government intervention.

Although some property owners are enjoying large capital gains and higher rental income, the overall outcome of such bubbles is grim. Millions of Californians are unable to afford housing unless they live far from work, share overcrowded quarters, or move to unfavorable neighborhoods. The worst part of this bubble is that it is unsustainable. Every economic depression is caused by the previous boom. House prices will plunge, defaults will crash the banks, and many will be unemployed. California’s public finances will again be in crisis.

DataQuick Real Estate News (www.dqnews.com) reports that the median sales price in the San Francisco Bay area has risen to $610,000, up 18.2 percent from June 2004. Real estate in California’s "Southland" counties is also hitting new highs. The median price for a house in California is $427,000, a record high.

We’ve been there before. A real estate cycle has existed in the USA since the early 1800s, with a period of about 18 years. Prices and construction peak and plateau, followed by a major depression. Real estate peaks preceded the depressions of 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1929, 1973, 1980, and 1990 (www.foldvary.net/works/cycle.html).

After a depression, real estate recovers as vacancies are reduced. During the upswing, rents and land values rise, fueled by low interest rates (in the latest boom, the Federal Reserve system greatly expanded the money supply and brought interest rates to historic lows). Rising real estate prices then attract investors and speculators, making prices rise even further and faster.

Government further boosts real estate prices by providing infrastructure such as streets, security, transit, and schooling. Landowners pay little of the cost, with funding coming mostly from taxes on wages and profits. Workers pay double for civic goods, once in the form of higher rent and again with taxes, while new owners pay high prices, with the gains going to the previous owner. If landowners had to pay for the civic goods, real estate prices would not rise nearly so high.

Next, since bank deposits are guaranteed by the federal government up to $100,000, banks face less risk when they lend for real estate purchase and development. Bankers sell their mortgages to the government-sponsored enterprises popularly called Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which in turn sell bonds to the public. With these guarantees and government-sponsored mortgage resale markets, banks go hog-wild, giving out interest-only mortgages and adjustable-rate loans to buyers with not-so-good credit.

Mortgages are paid from wages and profits, so eventually, real estate prices stop rising. The real estate market plateaus. Sales volume drops, but owners refuse to sell at prices much lower than they’ve been. Meanwhile, the Fed, fearful of inflation, reduces the growth of the money supply, hiking up interest rates (as they are now doing). Higher costs eventually choke off new investment. That lowers demand for other goods, then the economy plunges into a recession.

With rising unemployment and interest, some owners can’t afford to pay their mortgages, and they go into default. Properties get dumped on the market. Now real estate prices collapse as owners are forced to sell and banks unload properties. Banks fail, enterprises go bust, unemployment soars, and governments face financial crises.

The last real estate bottom was in 1990, so if this is another 18-year cycle, the next depression will be around 2008. So far, the economy is tracking the cycle right on schedule. In my judgment, the economy is entering the plateau stage.

We can see the multiple government interventions that create the boom-bust cycle: the manipulation of money and interest rates, the public works subsidy to landowners, the federal insurance of deposits, and government’s stepchildren, Fannie and Freddie. Since any major policy changes would require a crisis, we will just have to ride this real estate tsunami wave and then plunge down the financial waterfall that lies ahead.

This pattern is happening throughout the world. The subsequent crash will therefore be global. The cause is the same all over: government financial and fiscal interventions. So please, when the crash comes, don’t blame the market!